Summary
Rainfall outlook for South West Land Division (SWLD) for August to October, and spring, September to November, is for below median rainfall, based on a survey of 20 national and international models. Higher chance of frost is expected for August.
Things to consider:
- The Bureau of Meteorology outlook for minimum temperature for August indicates 25-65% chance of exceeding median minimum temperatures, meaning higher chance of frosts occurring for the majority of the South West Land Division.
- The Bureau of Meteorology is continuing the El Niño Alert. The El Niño is forecast to develop in August as well as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. This would reduce rainfall for the SWLD until November.
- Bureau’s ACCESS-S model indicates that there is an 80% chance of exceeding the median August to October maximum and minimum temperatures. This means there is high chances of warmer temperatures and reduced rainfall for August to October.
- Next cold front is forecast for 2 August with the Bureau of ACCESS model is indicating between 5-30mm of rain for the SWLD.
Rainfall outlook for the South West Land Division
Summary of 20 national and international models show that all models indicate below normal chances of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD for August to October 2023 and further ahead to spring September to November. Survey of 7 models also has drier conditions continuing into November 2023 to January 2024. Remember, however, the further out the model forecasts, the least skill it has.
Model summary of rainfall outlook for the South West Land Division up November 2023 to January 2024