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Seasonal Climate Outlook

The Seasonal Climate Outlook (SCO) is a monthly newsletter that summarises national and international climate outlooks for the next three months for the South West Land Division. It provides a review of recent climate indicators, including ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), the Indian Ocean Dipole, the Southern Annular Mode, as well as local sea surface temperature and pressures systems. 

April 2025

Seasonal Climate Outlook April 2025

The rainfall outlook for April to June 2025 indicates that most models suggest a neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall. A neutral outlook means extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall amounts remains possible. Temperature outlooks suggest that warmer-than-...

March 2025

Seasonal Climate Outlook March 2025

The rainfall outlook for autumn (March to May 2025) shows no model consensus (no majority agreement) among 18 national and international climate models for the northern part of the South West Land Division (SWLD). For the southern part of the SWLD, the models indicate a neutral chance of...

February 2025

Seasonal Climate Outlook February 2025

The rainfall outlook for the South West Land Division (SWLD) for February to April 2025 indicates a higher likelihood of above-median rainfall. Meanwhile, the temperature outlook suggests than warmer-than- normal temperatures will persist.

January 2025

Seasonal Climate Outlook January 2025

A survey of 19 national and international models indicates that the majority suggest January to March 2025 will experience above median rainfall for the South West Land. Warmer than normal temperatures are also expected.

December 2024

Seasonal Climate Outlook December 2024

The current rainfall outlook for the South West Land Division (SWLD) from December 2024 to February 2025 shows the majority of models suggest above median rainfall. An above median outlook does not necessarily indicate substantial rainfall, as this period typically sees low precipitation. Warmer...

November 2024

Seasonal Climate Outlook November 2024

The current rainfall outlook for the South West Land Division (SWLD) from November 2024 to January 2025 shows mixed results: half of the climate models indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall, while the other half suggest above median rainfall. Warmer maximum and minimum...

October 2024

Seasonal Climate Outlook October 2024

The current rainfall outlook for the South West Land Division (SWLD) from October to December has the majority of models indicating neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall. It’s important to understand that a neutral outlook does not imply average rainfall but rather reflects normal...

September 2024

Seasonal Climate Outlook September 2024

The current rainfall outlook for the South West Land Division (SWLD) from September to November is mixed, with most models indicating either neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall or predicting above-median rainfall. Near-normal maximum temperatures and warmer-than-normal minimum...

August 2024

Seasonal Climate Outlook August 2024

The current rainfall outlook for the South West Land Division (SWLD) from August to October indicates neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall, with an equal likelihood of below or above median rainfall. Near-normal maximum temperatures, and warmer than normal minimum temperatures are...

July 2024

Seasonal Climate Outlook July 2024

The current rainfall outlook for the South West Land Division (SWLD) for the next three months, July to September, indicates mixed chances of exceeding median rainfall.

Warmer temperatures than usual are anticipated to persist.

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