Summary
The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development’s (DPIRD) Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) outlook for February to April 2022 is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the South West Land Division (SWLD).
- For February to April 2022, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the SWLD. Above 60% chance for the eastern part of the Central Wheatbelt and parts of the South West forecast districts. The most probable rainfall decile map indicates decile 2-3 for the majority of the SWLD and decile 8-9 for the eastern part of the Central Wheatbelt and parts of the South West forecast districts. Predictive skill based on January conditions is mostly poor to good (50-70% consistent).
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for February to April 2022 is indicating neutral (40-60%) chance of above median rainfall for the SWLD. Predictive skill is poor to good (50-75% consistent). The longer-term outlook for autumn, March to May 2022 is slightly wetter (45-65%) with poor skill (45-55%).
- Temperature outlooks for February to April 2022, from the Bureau indicate a 60-80% chance of above average day-time maxima. Skill is 65-75%. The Bureau, indicates 80% chance of exceeding above average night-time minima for the SWLD. Skill is 55-75%.
- January rainfall was below average for the SWLD. January maximum temperatures were above average and below average along the south east coast. Minimum temperatures were average to above average.
- The main climate driver influencing Australia rainfall is the La Niña in the Pacific, although it has little influence over rainfall in the SWLD. The Southern Annular Mode is currently positive but expecting to return to neutral mid- February. The Southern Annular Mode (negative, neutral or positive) has little influence on SWLD climate in summer.
Three Month Outlook for the south-west of Western Australia
Statistical Seasonal Forecasting (SSF)
DPIRD’s Statistical Seasonal Forecast (SSF) system uses historical relationships between global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure with rainfall in south-west Australia to produce forecasts of rainfall for the coming months. Users can click on any station indicated on the map for location-specific forecast information from DPIRD’s Seasonal Climate Information pages.
For February to April 2022, the SSF is indicating less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the majority of the SWLD. Above 60% chance for the eastern part of the Central Wheatbelt and parts of the South West forecast districts. The most probable rainfall decile map indicates decile 2-3 for the majority of the SWLD and decile 8-9 for the eastern part of the Central Wheatbelt and parts of the South West forecast districts. Predictive skill based on January conditions is mostly poor to good (50-70% consistent).
