Bureau of Meteorology seasonal climate outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology's climate forecast system for monthly and seasonal climate outlooks is the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS–S2). It is a dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system and is a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for January to March 2023 is indicating 25-50% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD, with moderate to good skill (55-75%). The current longer-term outlook (at time of writing) for February to April 2023 and March to May 2023 is less than 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall with mostly moderate skill (50-65%).
Temperature outlooks for February to April 2023, from the Bureau indicate a 60-80% chance of above average day-time maxima, with the higher chances for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt . Skill is moderate 55-75%. For night-time minima for the SWLD, the Bureau is indicating 60-80% chance of exceeding above average temperatures, with higher chances along the coast. Skill is moderate at 55-65%.
Looking at other rainfall forecasting models, the majority of models are indicating neutral to below chance of exceeding median rainfall for the SWLD for January to March 2023.
